Av2 Program Continuation Model (100%, 40% / 15%)
It’s important to understand how the continuation model works. Not every client who enrolls in an Av2 program completes all 48 weeks. Instead, retention naturally declines at each stage, as some clients choose to continue while others move on. The continuation model is designed to reflect this real-world pattern: all seats begin in Block 1, but only a subset of those clients move into Block 2, and a smaller subset again into Block 3. The continuation percentages—40% for Block 2 and 15% for Block 3—represent the average rates at which clients opt to renew for each subsequent block, based on observed outcomes.
These rates apply to the entire pool of enrollments, not to individual clients. This means the total value for each license seat is projected by assuming 100% of clients in Block 1, then applying the continuation rates for Blocks 2 and 3 to model the proportion who persist through the full 48-week program. This approach delivers a more realistic estimate of what a trainer can expect over time, rather than assuming every seat will be filled from start to finish.
This approach does not mean that a client starts Block 2 and completes or pays for only a portion of it, nor that someone moves on to Block 3 and completes only a fraction of the sessions. Instead, it recognizes that in practice some clients will complete one block and decide not to renew, while others will sign up for the next block in full. The continuation rates simply model these real-world decisions at the group level, helping trainers forecast actual revenue based on the average proportion of clients who opt into each subsequent segment of the program.
Av2 programs are structured as three 16-week blocks (48 weeks total). The continuation model simply assumes that not everyone who starts Block 1 will complete all three blocks, and it incorporates that reality into the revenue model.
When you see “with 40% and 15% continuation,” it means the totals across 48 weeks are reduced using two continuation checkpoints. First, we assume that 40% of the people who begin Block 1 continue into Block 2. Second, we assume that 15% of the original starters make it all the way into Block 3. In other words, Block 2 revenue is calculated at 40% of the Block 1 seat count, and Block 3 revenue is calculated at 15% of the original seat count, not 100%.
These continuation percentages are drawn from observed behavior in Av2 pilot programs and comparable long-form coaching models. Across those cases, continuation into the second 16-week block has generally ranged from about 40–55%, and full three-block completion from about 15–25%. The worksheet fixes its continuation assumptions at 40% and 15%, using the low end of those ranges, so the continuation step discounts the long-term value of each seat relative to what the underlying retention data would normally support.
The effect is simple: instead of pretending every seat runs perfectly for all 48 weeks, the continuation model discounts the long-term value of each seat to reflect realistic drop-off. If your actual continuation is higher than 40% and 15%, your real revenue will be higher than the worksheet shows.
These rates apply to the entire pool of enrollments, not to individual clients. This means the total value for each license seat is projected by assuming 100% of clients in Block 1, then applying the continuation rates for Blocks 2 and 3 to model the proportion who persist through the full 48-week program. This approach delivers a more realistic estimate of what a trainer can expect over time, rather than assuming every seat will be filled from start to finish.
This approach does not mean that a client starts Block 2 and completes or pays for only a portion of it, nor that someone moves on to Block 3 and completes only a fraction of the sessions. Instead, it recognizes that in practice some clients will complete one block and decide not to renew, while others will sign up for the next block in full. The continuation rates simply model these real-world decisions at the group level, helping trainers forecast actual revenue based on the average proportion of clients who opt into each subsequent segment of the program.
Av2 programs are structured as three 16-week blocks (48 weeks total). The continuation model simply assumes that not everyone who starts Block 1 will complete all three blocks, and it incorporates that reality into the revenue model.
When you see “with 40% and 15% continuation,” it means the totals across 48 weeks are reduced using two continuation checkpoints. First, we assume that 40% of the people who begin Block 1 continue into Block 2. Second, we assume that 15% of the original starters make it all the way into Block 3. In other words, Block 2 revenue is calculated at 40% of the Block 1 seat count, and Block 3 revenue is calculated at 15% of the original seat count, not 100%.
These continuation percentages are drawn from observed behavior in Av2 pilot programs and comparable long-form coaching models. Across those cases, continuation into the second 16-week block has generally ranged from about 40–55%, and full three-block completion from about 15–25%. The worksheet fixes its continuation assumptions at 40% and 15%, using the low end of those ranges, so the continuation step discounts the long-term value of each seat relative to what the underlying retention data would normally support.
The effect is simple: instead of pretending every seat runs perfectly for all 48 weeks, the continuation model discounts the long-term value of each seat to reflect realistic drop-off. If your actual continuation is higher than 40% and 15%, your real revenue will be higher than the worksheet shows.
